Will Tokenized Assets (RWAs) actually hit $100B this year?

As we settle into the first month of 2026, the noise around Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization has shifted from “if” to “how fast.” For years, we’ve heard the trillion-dollar forecasts from the likes of BCG and McKinsey, but those always felt like a distant horizon. Now, the horizon is right under our feet. In just the opening weeks of January 2026, the total value locked (TVL) in the RWA sector (excluding stablecoins) pushed past the $21 billion mark – a 5% jump in a matter of days.

But the $100 billion question remains: is this a linear climb or are we about to hit an inflection point? If you strip away the $170+ billion in stablecoins that often muddy the data, the “pure” RWA market – Treasuries, gold, private credit, and real estate – is currently a relatively small but explosive niche. To hit $100 billion by year-end, we’d need to see the market roughly quintuple. In any other industry, that sounds like a fever dream. In fintech, it’s just another Tuesday.

The “Big Three” Driving the Numbers

To understand if $100B is realistic, we have to look at what’s actually moving. We’ve moved past the “experimental pilot” phase. Today, institutional capital is clustering in three specific corners:

1. Tokenized Treasuries: This is the heavyweight champion. At the start of 2026, on-chain U.S. Treasury debt reached approximately $9.05 billion. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and Franklin Templeton’s offerings aren’t just proofs of concept anymore; they are becoming the primary liquidity instruments for digital-native institutions.
2. Commodities (Gold): Gold-backed tokens like Tether’s XAUT and Paxos’ PAXG have found a second life. As of January 20, 2026, tokenized commodities account for over $3.7 billion in value.
3. Private Credit: This is the “sleeper” hit of the year. With over $2.44 billion already on-chain, private credit is where the real yield is hiding.

Igor Izraylevych, CEO of S-PRO, recently noted that the real catalyst for 2026 isn’t just “more assets,” but the maturity of the secondary markets. He pointed out that while we’ve gotten very good at minting tokens, the next twelve months will be defined by how easily a fund manager can exit a tokenized private credit position without a 5% haircut.

The 2026 Catalyst: The “Policy Triumvirate”

Why would the market quintuple now? Analysts are pointing to what’s being called the “policy triumvirate”: synchronized global monetary easing, the U.S. GENIUS Act providing long-awaited stablecoin clarity, and the full implementation of the EU’s MiCA framework.

We’re also seeing a massive structural shift in how institutions view RWA tokenization. It’s no longer about “crypto-native” yield seekers. We’re talking about sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies. Recent reports from the RWA.xyz data pool show that the number of RWA holders grew by nearly 9% in the last 30 days alone, reaching over 636,000 global participants. That’s not a retail spike; that’s the sound of institutional pipes being connected.

The Hurdles: Liquidity and “Walled Gardens”

Let’s be honest for a second – hitting $100 billion won’t be a cakewalk. The “illiquidity discount” is still a very real thing for tokenized real estate and art. If you look at the RWA tokenization trends and use cases shared by industry leaders, you’ll see that “fragmented liquidity” remains the biggest boogeyman.

A token on Ethereum doesn’t necessarily talk to a token on Solana or a private bank’s permissioned ledger. Until we have a “universal settlement layer” (which BlackRock is aggressively pushing for via Ethereum), we’re still working in silos. If the $100 billion goal fails, it won’t be because of a lack of assets; it will be because we haven’t built the bridges between the “walled gardens” fast enough.

A Forecast for the Rest of the Year

So, will we hit it? If the current 5% bi-weekly growth rate holds – which is a big “if” – we could actually blow past $100 billion by October. However, market cycles are rarely that kind. A more realistic scenario sees us landing between $60 billion and $80 billion by December, which would still represent a historic three-fold increase in twelve months.

The takeaway for 2026 is that the “infrastructure” phase is officially over. The tools are here, the regulations are (mostly) clear, and the biggest players in the world have already placed their bets. We’re no longer talking about “the future of finance.” We’re watching the legacy financial system move onto the ledger, one Treasury bill and one gold bar at a time. The $100 billion milestone is less of a destination and more of a starting gun for the trillions that are sure to follow by 2030.